Top Five Export Controls and Sanctions Areas to Watch in 2026

Looking ahead to this year, several emerging issues are poised to influence policy. We are monitoring five priority areas, including US-China instability, shifting AI rules, and the uncertain outlook for a post-Maduro Venezuela.

1. China

Will this year bring more stability, particularly in terms of licensing policy? Or will the whiplash that we saw in 2025, related to the Bureau of Industry and Security’s (BIS) licensing (pauses in BIS’ processing of license applications, the issuance of “is-informed” letters, or the revocation or suspension of some previously approved export licenses), continue as the United States and China seek to gain leverage in ongoing trade negotiations? Will sales of more advanced chips, such as the Nvidia H200 chips, to China occur, and what will be the terms (wait for our next alert!)? Will restrictions like the Military End-User restrictions in Part 744.21 of the Export Administration Regulations be expanded to cover a larger universe of items?

2. Controls Related to AI, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, Advanced Integrated Circuits

Will the AI Diffusion Rule, that was issued in the last days of the Biden Administration, finally be formally rescinded? Will we receive more clarity about what might take its place? Will there be additional focus on end-use and end-user restrictions in Part 744 or new red flags to be evaluated?

3. Ownership Due Diligence

Although the Affiliates Rule has been suspended until November 9, 2026, the suspension could be reversed at any time, and there has been talk by members of the US Congress of codifying the rule. Remember that the 50% rule in the sanctions context remains unchanged. Ownership screening also remains relevant in the evaluation of the applicability of the controls related to advanced computing items and semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 744.23. BIS guidance recommends evaluating customers’ ownership structure when exporting advanced computing integrated circuits or commodities containing them.

4. Venezuela

What comes next following the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela? Will the current blockade be lifted? Will sanctions restrictions be eased or licenses issued to authorize companies to undertake business activities in the country, including in its oil sector?

5. Continued Threat and Use of Sanctions as a Tool

Will the newly announced “Donroe” Doctrine lead to an increased threat or use of sanctions as a tool to bring other countries (and their leaders) into lockstep with US objectives? Will the United States continue to cite sanctions as the basis for seizing vessels? Based on actions and statements as well as the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 before Congress, which may be passed and signed into law, we could see developments and activity under the current sanctions programs against Iran, Russia, and Cuba, as well as under programs like the Counter Narcotics and Transnational Criminal Organization sanctions programs. Will there be new sanctions programs or designations to further the Trump Administration’s foreign policy goals?